Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-09-29 53158.139674 56353.782328 59557.779318 63008.554084 66617.462033 70277.688768 74267.987045
2024-10-06 48458.266246 53364.610407 58430.320306 64042.905788 70078.748546 76366.083087 83401.959928
2024-10-13 44845.715694 50899.561098 57296.192399 64541.149516 72501.155188 80962.487254 90618.681437
2024-10-20 41771.061913 48641.070173 56043.178095 64582.715717 74132.907807 84454.570056 96422.991214
2024-10-27 39099.239333 46579.522110 54779.566891 64393.603297 75312.500930 87283.681514 101355.450620
2024-11-03 37579.529613 45673.055486 54680.153893 65389.164173 77714.003545 91392.964289 107659.440313
2024-11-10 36127.603025 44730.538056 54438.912404 66130.871371 79750.677383 95035.446848 113402.176733
2024-11-17 34631.761089 43640.008558 53940.610634 66496.340865 81288.425414 98060.593196 118409.888430
2024-11-24 33086.394952 42405.252443 53196.559570 66502.578621 82347.289761 100488.287871 122698.428800
2024-12-01 31849.669324 41475.514823 52755.046221 66812.812589 83719.491336 103250.373310 127361.537011
2024-12-08 30580.686257 40445.514011 52138.675454 66863.420549 84741.703005 105572.484100 131492.523451
2024-12-15 29855.321525 40047.413935 52255.076899 67771.842282 86773.626769 109083.541477 137040.343196
2024-12-22 28657.901607 39027.992457 51588.162214 67712.402711 87637.928600 111222.127275 140995.476267
2024-12-29 28095.052176 38786.150824 51865.223156 68805.077680 89907.699964 115064.186716 147030.419478
2025-01-05 27304.764585 38219.025090 51706.668194 69332.116779 91466.558872 118041.810892 152030.777387
2025-01-12 26343.600113 37392.841431 51187.319524 69376.007189 92402.885468 120246.819247 156088.895633
2025-01-19 25331.704535 36462.395386 50500.531021 69175.717201 93007.683269 122027.310848 159619.855387
2025-01-26 24925.938602 36314.856485 50805.258356 70229.902790 95187.987854 125760.687307 165578.786383
2025-02-02 24430.447331 36026.653615 50910.675232 71015.170606 97022.088116 129067.902797 171026.494038
2025-02-09 23797.024652 35528.800740 50721.707774 71402.067776 98337.243354 131724.350150 175672.421868
2025-02-16 23042.429734 34839.878683 50257.511354 71408.671000 99148.233706 133738.946883 179515.961071
2025-02-23 22452.261561 34357.070615 50049.530815 71737.075128 100365.393323 136265.025968 184012.447308
2025-03-02 21784.491906 33744.263351 49647.459210 71790.645518 101212.170878 138314.665191 187909.656459